I once overheard a humorous and telling conversation between a player making an eight team parlay and a wise cracking bookie... Player: "How much does an eight team parlay pay?" Bookie: "How much you wanna lay on that parlay?" Player: "Make it for $25." Bookie "Then that pays -$25 sir."

And so it was and is increasingly hard to place a parlay without someone chiming in about your lack of sense. A friend of mine recently called me asking for my opinion on parlays. He said he had been watching an NBA playoff game at a sports bar when someone asked him what he had action on. He made the mistake of admitting to them that he played and liked parlays. The blowhards he encountered that night peppered him with comments like "Parlays are for suckers", but my friend noted they didn't have much to back up their opinions. He asked me what I thought, and while I'm not here to advocate parlays, I will tell you what I told him... "Parlays are like the show 'Desperate Housewives', no man will admit he likes it, yet millions watch every week!" It's amazing the popularity of parlays in the sportsbooks, if you like parlays go ahead and enjoy them; you're not alone!

What exactly is a parlay? Simply put a parlay is a betting option where you can wager two or more teams. The more teams you add to your parlay the more the parlay pays. Every single selection must win though, so winning 7 out of 8 pays... Well -25! It's a simple concept: Bet small, win big! Betting a three teamer at $20/$120 is a better fit for many smaller players who may not have $110 to win $100. So why does everyone say parlays are "Sucker bets"? It's a misunderstanding mostly. Four team parlays and up are like playing the lottery, but two and three teamers can be good plays.

 

# Teams	True Odds	Fixed Odds	House Edge
2	3/1	2.6/1	10.00%
3	7/1	6/1	12.50%
4	15/1	10/1	31.25%
5	31/1	20/1	34.38%
6	63/1	40/1	35.94%
7	127/1	75/1	40.63%
8	255/1	150/1	41.02%

 

 

One only needs to look at the 'house edge' on the chart to see that a player really only gets the shaft after he selects his fourth team. In fact if you play a three team parlay you are actually laying less than -110 on each pick! Don't believe me? Let's do some quick math...

• If you bet $100 x 1.909 (The factor assigned for -110 juice) you come up with $190.90
• Bet that $190.90 x 1.909 again on the second leg and you have $364.43
• Roll that into the third leg multiplying $364.43 x 1.909 and the sum is: $695.69
• Subtract the original $100 wagered. I.e. $695.69 - $100 and you have won $595.69.
• As seen in the chart above the average sportsbook payout on a three ream parlay with fixed odds is 6/1 so you are actually making an extra $5 over 'factored odds'!!!

 

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Neither do two team parlays gouge the player...

• Again let's start with a bet of $100 x 1.909 (The factor assigned for -110 juice) and you have $190.90
• Roll the $190.90 into the second leg and multiply. $190.90 x 1.909 = 364.43
• Minus your original $100 bet = $264.43
• As you can see, again you are not being taken to the cleaners on the price since most sportsbooks pay 2.6 to 1, which is roughly the same as the 'factored odds'.

If you are allowed to parlay the side to the total in the same game it's a 'correlated parlay'. Correlate : 1: either of two things so related that one directly implies or is complementary to the other (as husband and wife).

Parlay correlated picks together whenever possible and you may come out ahead of the parlay game! 2 Team and 3 Team Parlays

There are times when a smart player can increase the level of correlation by simply choosing wisely. Let's say you were betting a baseball game using the 'run line' and the favorite was -1 ½ runs with the total being 7 runs. The favorite winning the game makes it far more likely the over would come in also. How about betting under in the first half of a basketball game and parlaying it to the under on the entire game? If the first half goes under there is a very strong chance of the entire game going under You will not find these wagers available at your sportsbook as the bookmakers know the math, but they illustrate my point. What the average player may be able to do however is parlay high scoring teams in the NBA such as Phoenix , Sacramento or Dallas to the over effectively. Bad weather games can make for a nice opportunity too. If a football game is being played in the rain or a blizzard, the chances are the double digit favorite isn't going to rack up many points and thus the 'dog' to the under is a solid play.

As we can see the statement "Parlays are sucker bets" is simply not fair. Some types of parlays bets are just as beatable as straight bets alone, plus a guy can have fun with a smaller bank roll. It's when you move on to your fourth team and beyond you really start to get banged up. Think about it, you increased your payoff by 260% by adding a second team, and by 269% with the third team, but by adding the fourth team you increased your payoff by only 57%.

Not only that, but you find yourself further and further away from 'true odds' with the house having a huge edge on you (30%-40%). While I don't suggest you play four teamers and up, I do encourage you to look around and find a book that offers higher payoff odds (They're out there!) if parlays are your thing. Good luck and have fun.

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