• NFL Betting - Arbitraging: Introduction
• NFL Betting - Arbitraging: The Basics
• NFL Betting - Arbitraging: Bonuses in the Online Sportsbook Industry
• NFL Betting - Arbitraging: Spotting the Opportunities
• NFL Betting - Arbitraging: How Do I Know How Much Do I Bet?
• NFL Betting - Arbitraging: 10 Useful Tips to Successfully Arbitrage in Sports-betting


"Money, it's a gas.
Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash.
New car, caviar, four star daydream,
Think I'll buy me a football team.

Money, get back.
I'm all right jack keep your hands off of my stack.
Money, it’s a hit..."

MONEY. In the savage world of pure capitalism and unilateral benefits, the Almighty Dollar is the very epitome of success. He who has the gold, makes the rules.

People do big business, start ventures, build empires, betray friendships and abandon creeds in their pursuit of money. But it’s not money that we long for; it’s the ability of acquisition that comes with it, the inebriating sensation of power that’s intrinsically implied in the very act of purchasing, owning and, of course, ruling. In this world, money is power.

In this jungle of possession frenzy, the governing rule remains the same that is going to secure the evolution of the most apt in other realms: the fittest will survive and prevail. And when it comes to being financially fit, you must know money. You need to get intimate with the very nature of it. Once you have been able to understand how to generate the largest amount of revenue at the lowest margin of risk possible, you will enter a new stage.

For many years, power-driven brains in power E. Zegna suits in the 'street' have explored the different venues to maximize this applied principle... and many have discovered the power of ARBITRAGING. This is, by definition, the purchase of securities or goods on one market for immediate resale on another market in order to profit from a price discrepancy. When done correctly, the risk factor is practically inexistent.

A simple example involves trading gold. Gold trades on exchanges in New York (NASDAQ) and London (LSE), and the prices oscillate independently from each other in the two markets. If gold is trading at an asking price of $475.10 an ounce in NY and at a bid price of $475.17 an ounce in London, a trader can execute simultaneous trades to buy gold in NY and sell it in London and he will instantly lock in a guaranteed profit of 7 cents per ounce. It is obvious that you must trade in large quantities to make a lot of money, but given the fact that this trade has ZERO RISK and a GUARANTEED PROFIT, it is absolutely worth doing.

This same principle is sure to be applied in the sports-betting market. An old-school line of thought sustains that 'middling' (bookie for arbitraging) is a thing of the past. 'Middling' during the 70s and 80s in Las Vegas was an attempt of many investors to anticipate the move of a betting line on any given sporting event. They would hire the sharpest handicappers to give them the most accurate forecast on how the game would turn out and as the lines were posted, they would send 'runners' to make wagers on the way their handicappers thought the numbers would actually move. Some time after, once the lines had been hit by 'square' or recreational action, they would try to bet back the opposite side and hope for the game to 'fall'.

That type of arbitraging might be a thing of the past, but arbitraging in the world of sports betting is alive as it ever was. As a matter of fact, based on the principles of arbitraging and the manipulation of asymmetrical straddles by the ‘reduced juice’ or discount price shops, the market has witnessed the rising of titans, online sportsbooks that handle a turnover volume of up to $4 Billion...

That's a lot of money; a big pie and there's no reason why you shouldn't bet into it... or better yet, be a successful arbitrager.

The Basics

It is feasible to wager on sporting events with the guarantee that you will win, regardless of the outcome of the game. As a matter of fact and due to the diversity of the markets (Asian, European and American bookies offer all different odds on the same events at the same time often enough), opportunities of this nature present themselves many times a day in the sports-betting market. And this is no gambling either, as the very purpose is to deprive the process of any chance of losing your bets. Let's see an example:

Team A vs. Team B – Placing bets on the money lines
• Book X has the Team B at -280
• Book Y has the Team A at +310

With the help of a spreadsheet, the correct ratio of money to bet at each book was determined as follows:
• A bet risking $1,661.58 on the Team B at Book X
• A bet risking $550.00 on the Team A at Book Y

If the Team A wins, the return on the $550 will be $1705, $43.42 more than the bet of $1,661.58 on the Team B. If on the contrary, the Team B wins, then the comeback on that wager would amount to $593.42; still $43.42 more than the money risked on the Team A at the other book. The two bets of a 'middle' are usually known as 'legs'. In this example, you're standing on two good legs.

The total payoff for both bets was $2,255.00. The total amount of risk was $2,211.58. Your guaranteed profit on this trade is $43.42, or 1.96%.

While a small fifty does not seem to be much, the money starts adding up if you were to spot these opportunities more than once a day, every day of the week.

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The Cherry on Top of the Sundae - Bonuses in the Online Sportsbook Industry

And yet, there's still something about online gaming that is even more enticing than risk-free arbitraging: when you register and fund an account at each of these books you will receive a sign-up bonus. While the average bonus is 10% cash, there are some reputable recreational shops out there that will give you up to a 20% bonus.

If you spread out your bankroll, you'll get some extra fuel to ride those 'middles'... to the point that over time you will become adept at moving your winnings from one online sportsbook back into the shop where you lost. Taking advantage of reload bonuses just keeps the free money rolling in.

The golden rule to keep a healthy flow of free cash coming into your account is to not get greedy. If you win at Book 'A' today, be courteous and lose tomorrow and do not abuse the bonuses, or they will stop coming before you even had a chance to really enjoy the perk.

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Spotting the Opportunities

Given the dynamic nature of the market and the fact that there are God-only-knows how many thousands of people waiting on the same exact number you're waiting for, it's crucial to grab the right number at the right time, before the line moves against you. These opportunities don't last long -sometimes the value of the number is squeezed out in less than 10 minutes-, and because of that you need a reliable and trustworthy way to spot them swiftly.

There are various websites and services available, some go for as much as $600 a month; others are free, but their odds are pulled from the sportsbooks on a delayed basis and in many occasions by the time you see the "opportunity" the line has changed already and it doesn't actually exist. That is a nightmare for a sports arbitrager or 'middler', as you will now be standing on 'bad leg' with virtually no outs. When stuff like that happens, you might lose all the profit you were able to grind out in the day.

These days there are services that will even indicate the lines to be taken advantage of, where you can find them and your guaranteed profit percentage on those 'middles'. They're, however, very pricey. So you want to pay for those, only if you're going to use it at its fullest extension. Otherwise, how can you tell when you found a good arbitraging opportunity? As a rule of thumb, you will know that when you're looking at these numbers you want to find 2 different odds, which net sum will be a positive number (using the example above: +310 -280 = +30)

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How Do I Know How Much Do I Bet?

The easiest way to determine the correct amount to bet on each side is to use a simple spreadsheet. This version is only good for events with two possible outcomes. It cannot be used for betting on soccer which can end in a tie. Even though NHL and NFL games can end in a tie, the US centric books refund your bet in that case. The spreadsheet will also tell you the amount of your win.

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10 Useful Tips to Successfully Arbitrage in Sports-betting

1. Most online sportsbooks start adjusting their odds as game time approaches, mostly because this is when most people bet on the games. The best time to start checking for arbitraging opportunities usually comes 30 to 45 minutes before the game goes off the board.
2. Avoid crunch time. Books will adjust the odds right up until game time. Make sure you don't leave yourself too little time to place both sides of the 'middle'.
3. In the US market, the most profitable opportunities are on NHL totals, moneylines and spreads; NFL moneylines and spreads, Tennis, and NBA moneylines.
4. Open up a browser for each site you use. Before to place your bet, make sure the odds have not changed on you.
5. Know the limits for each bet on every sport you wager on. Never circumvent the posted limits for an event. If you get a wager cancelled because you went over the limit, you’ll be standing on a 'bad leg'
6. Bet quickly. When you bet, make sure you have already calculated the amount you need to bet at each site in the spreadsheet. As soon as you have confirmed your first bet on the read-back screen, place the second bet.

 

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7. In the worst case scenario - when you have placed the first bet and the odds have changed at the second book-, go back to the spreadsheet and enter the new odds. Standing on a bad leg will eat up your profit; it might then take as many as 50 winners to recover this one loss.
8. Never place both legs of a 'middle' at the same book. You will be shown the door fast once they learn you're draining their value. You need to keep friendly business relationships with healthy 'outs'.
9. Do not place the bet if the sportsbook has clearly posted the wrong odds. The line managers will apply the dreaded bad line rule to your bet and cancel it. If this happens, you'll be standing on a 'bad leg'.
10. Have discipline. This is a game of endurance and endless hours in front of the screen, no shortcuts here.

Arbitraging is not gambling; forget the thrill and good luck. In arbitraging, it's all about the grinding of odds. So don't do this, if you're looking for some action. You need to arbitrage only if you believe in building slow but steady profit. In the end, the greenback does not come easy...

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